Data analytics firm GlobalData expects world nickel production to fall 7.4% to 2.19 million tonnes in 2020, mainly due to temporary mine closures caused by COVID-19 and Indonesia's export ban.
According to MiningWeekly, GlobalData forecasts that global nickel mine production will decline by 7.4% year-on-year to 2.19 million tonnes in 2020, primarily as a result of COVID-19-related temporary mine suspensions and Indonesia's export ban.
In 2020, Indonesia's nickel mine output is expected to drop from 800,000 tonnes last year to 680,000 tonnes, a decrease of 15%.
Vinneth Bajaj, senior mining analyst at GlobalData, believes that Indonesian nickel mining companies without nickel pig iron production facilities have been struggling with selling ore to domestic smelters at low prices and insufficient capacity. As a result, mines have suspended or reduced production during the first three quarters of this year, and this situation is expected to persist for the rest of the year.
Affected by both the COVID-19 pandemic and adverse weather, the Philippines' nickel mine output is expected to fall by 9.3% to 293,400 tonnes in 2020. On April 1, Nickel Asia and Global Ferronickel suspended nickel mining operations in Surigao del Norte, where most of the country's nickel mines are located. In mid-May, mines resumed production under strict adherence to pandemic prevention measures.
In contrast, nickel mines in New Caledonia and Brazil were not affected despite the pandemic challenges, with combined output from the two countries rising by 6.9%. The growth was mainly driven by the restart of Brazil's Santa Rita nickel mine, which had been shut down in 2015 due to low nickel prices. Vale's Goro nickel mine in New Caledonia also saw higher output.
Looking ahead, global nickel mine production is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 4.2% during the forecast period (2021-2024), reaching 2.64 million tonnes by 2024. The increase will be mainly driven by Indonesia, Australia, the Philippines, and Canada, whose combined output is projected to rise from 1.42 million tonnes in 2021 to 1.64 million tonnes in 2024.
Nickel mine projects expected to come on stream during this period include Indonesia's East Halmahera nickel mine (2021), the Aquila Nickel project (2023), and Russia's Kingash nickel mine (2024).