On April 10, the 2019 International Battery Materials Conference, co-hosted by Fastmarkets (formerly Metal Bulletin) and China Minmetals Corporation, was successfully held at the Kerry Hotel Pudong, Shanghai. At the conference, several distinguished speakers delivered impressive presentations.
Roskill's Xiaobai Liu said that in the new energy sector, the hottest ternary cathode material on the market is NCM, while Tesla uses NCA, which is less used in China. Data from China's NEV battery installations in 2018 show that ternary and lithium iron phosphate already occupy an absolute market share, with lithium manganate and other types accounting for only 2%.
Liu said that NCM333 and NCM523 have already become relatively mature materials, 622 is under development, and 811 is in the R&D and experimental stage. In China, NCM333+523 account for over 70% of the market, 622 accounts for 15%, while 811 and NCA account for less than 10%. It is expected that by 2020, total domestic NCM demand will exceed 1.2 million tons, mainly for passenger vehicles.
On cost, Liu said that NCM811 is 20% cheaper than NCA in raw material terms and has better thermal stability; 523 is 25% cheaper than 333; 622 is 27% cheaper than 333; and 811 is about 42% cheaper than 333. High-nickel provides a pathway to cost reduction, but the material upgrade also adds pressure on the supply of nickel sulfate. Nevertheless, high-nickel has already become a development trend in ternary cathode materials.
Meanwhile, given the stringent carbon emission standards set by the EU, by 2021 no non-hybrid gasoline or diesel vehicle will be able to meet the EU's specified target of 95g. Liu noted that automakers domestically and internationally are facing extremely severe challenges, and electrification will become the development direction.
As for the basic forecast for EV demand, Liu stated that if global clean-energy vehicle subsidies are phased out gradually within five years after 2018, NEV sales will surpass fuel vehicles in 2025, while fuel vehicle sales will peak in 2020. It is estimated that by 2030, about 55% of global vehicle sales will be new energy vehicles, with NCM811 and NCA becoming the mainstream battery materials.
Adam Panayi, Managing Director of Rho Motion, also delivered an insightful presentation. He said that higher energy density is a key factor in reducing battery costs. Silicon plays a critical role in increasing energy density. At present, in automotive applications, the average silicon-to-graphite mixing ratio is 4%, with a maximum of 6%, rather than the occasionally reported 10%. The additive is usually silicon oxide rather than pure silicon. Compared with traditional anodes, fully silicon-based anodes could theoretically improve energy density by 20%.
Later, in a panel discussion, several experts discussed solid-state batteries and their future drivers. Hu Liuquan, General Manager of Changyuan Lithium, said that China's solid-state battery R&D is still in the laboratory, and manufacturing costs are relatively high.
Emily Hersh, Managing Partner of DCDB Group, said that given the need for large capital investment and the high risks involved, many companies and investors are reluctant to commit to solid-state battery R&D. Perhaps in the future, more technologies will be developed by startup companies or through collaborative models.
Commenting on the financial markets, Emily said that just because a material is currently being hyped does not mean it is the future direction; major uncertainties remain. She hopes the financial markets can recognize this rationally.
In the afternoon session, Daixin Li from BloombergNEF's Energy Storage and Battery Supply Chain department gave a comprehensive overview of the energy storage market. She said that in 2018, newly commissioned global energy storage capacity reached 4GW/8.6GWh. Lithium-ion batteries are the dominant energy storage technology, and the "renewable energy + energy storage" application model is becoming mainstream. The energy storage market is attracting increasing interest, with global cumulative installed capacity expected to reach 942GW/2857GWh by 2040. From 2030 onward, the user side will become the main application scenario for energy storage.
Regarding China's energy storage market, Li said that in 2018, newly added operational capacity exceeded the cumulative installed capacity of previous years. Lithium iron phosphate batteries are China's main energy storage technology, accounting for 83% of the market. The average bid price of Chinese lithium iron phosphate battery packs is 30% lower than the global average, and the participation of grid companies was the strongest driver of China's market growth in 2018. The reform of the ancillary services market creates opportunities for energy storage frequency regulation; commercial and industrial user-side projects operate through peak-valley price arbitrage; the two detailed rules impose stricter assessment standards on renewable energy generation, which will bring opportunities for energy storage; and equipment manufacturers are the main participants in China's energy storage market.